The HVAC services market is projected to grow from USD 72.5 billion in 2025 to USD 97.9 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2025 to 2030.
China’s HVAC services market is becoming strategically important as the country pursues its dual carbon goals of peaking emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which require significant reductions in building energy use. Official and research assessments indicate that buildings account for roughly one-fifth to just under one-third of China’s total energy consumption, and HVAC alone can reach around 45% of building energy use in large cities. As urbanization, rising incomes, and hotter summers accelerate demand for space cooling, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that China has seen some of the world’s fastest growth in cooling electricity use, with cooling already consuming hundreds of terawatt hours annually.
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These trends are reshaping the HVAC services ecosystem, moving it from basic maintenance toward performance-based, retrofit, and energy optimization contracts. Under China’s dual carbon and green building policies, supported by agencies such as the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there is a growing emphasis on high-efficiency chillers, variable-speed systems, digital controls, and commissioning-based services. Service providers are increasingly engaged in large-scale retrofit programs for public buildings, commercial real estate, and district energy systems, where lifecycle monitoring, fault detection, and performance guarantees are becoming key revenue streams. This policy-backed shift positions HVAC service companies as long-term partners in decarbonizing existing building stock rather than just installers or repair contractors.
Recent developments further underline the growth potential. IEA and REN21 data indicate that China is now the world’s largest market for air-source heat pumps, with Chinese heat pump sales increasing by approximately 12% in 2023 and heat pumps accounting for an estimated 8% of building heating equipment sales. Our analysis also projects robust growth in China’s heat pump segment through 2030, driven by government incentives and coal-to-clean-heating programs. These dynamics are driving demand for specialized services, including heat pump retrofits, refrigerant conversion, and advanced control optimization. As energy efficiency becomes a core pillar in China’s Energy Efficiency 2024 roadmap, HVAC services stand at the center of execution, connecting policy targets with real-world performance in buildings.
Based on service type, the installation service segment accounted for the largest share of the HVAC services market. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment for HVAC mechanics and installers is projected to grow by 6% from 2022 to 2032, which is faster than the average growth rate for all occupations. An estimated 37,700 job openings are expected annually due to workforce transitions and retirements, highlighting the growing demand for skilled technicians in the sector. Beyond initial installation, professional HVAC services also ensure that systems comply with local regulations and energy codes. Technicians are trained to calibrate controls, test for leaks, and verify airflow rates, which helps prevent premature breakdowns and reduces energy consumption. This results in lower utility bills and fewer service calls, making professional installation a long-term cost-saving investment.
Based on implementation type, the retrofit buildings segment is expected to experience the highest growth in the HVAC services market, because the existing building stock far exceeds the pace of new construction in most mature and developing markets. As buildings age, HVAC equipment reaches the end of its life or becomes inefficient due to changing standards for energy consumption, indoor air quality, or refrigerant regulations, driving demand for retrofits and system upgrades rather than new installations. Retrofits often involve modernizing HVAC systems with energy-efficient chillers, variable-speed drives, smarter controls, and compliance with newer codes, which tend to be higher-value and more complex than initial installations.
Moreover, global trends such as stricter environmental regulations, rising energy costs, and growing awareness of building sustainability are prompting building owners to retrofit rather than build anew. As a result, retrofit service segments, including maintenance, upgrades, energy efficiency upgrades, and system replacements, are becoming increasingly central to the demand for HVAC services.
